Oscar Predictions 2009

My friends and family know how much I LOVE the Oscars. I adore everything about the ceremony and all things leading up to it –
- The onslaught of “quality” films that come slamming into each other every December just before the Academy eligibility cut-off date.
- All of the lesser awards shows like the SAG, DGA, WGA, Golden Globes etc. that come before – and then the actual Oscar nomination day itself.
- I have been known to actually wake up at 5:30 AM PST on that cold January morning to watch the nominations live. I know… I need help.
The Oscar season brings out the film nerd in me. I make sure to try and see all of the films nominated in the major categories, and I feel disappointed with myself when I don’t get to see everything. This year I did pretty well, although I missed Happy Go Lucky and a few of the documentary and foreign film nominees.

This year I have even more of a reason to celebrate because my #1 boyfriend, Hugh Jackman is hosting!! (squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!)

I don’t know if you know this but, I am very competitive. I participate in an Oscar pool at work and I am the undefeated champion 5 years running. My friends have stopped doing their own Oscar pool contests with me because they say that it’s unfair to play against me! I think it’s unfair that my friends are denying me the chance to beat them fair and square! It’s not my fault that I’m so good – people should do their homework.


Every year I enter Roger Ebert's contest that he does through the Sun Times where he encourages people to try and beat him. I have yet to do so (damn you Ebert!) but one of these days I'm going to win that prize (a ticket to the following year's ceremony).
ANYWAY, here are my predictions – feel free to use them for your own Oscar contests. My guesses below are only for the "major" awards; but here is the full list of nominees just in case you actually have a life and aren’t obsessed about them like I am.

The Duchess's 2009 Oscar predictions:

Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire. If ever there was a Dickens story for the 21st century, this is it. And it's a phenom that's broken almost every rule of Hollywood marketing. Another reason why I think this film will win the big prize? Danny Boyle, the film's director, won the Directors Guild Award a few weeks ago, and in 52 of the last 58 years, the DGA winner's film has won the Oscar as best picture. So don't bet against it.

Best Director:
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire, not only because it was an awesome directorial challenge, using untrained actors on unfamiliar locations, but because he won the Directors Guild Award (see above).

Best Actor:
I have been battling back and forth on this race. It's between Sean Penn in Milk and Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. As of today, when I submitted my choices to the office pool I have Mickey Rourke, but I am sort of starting to backtrack and think the Penn might get it again. And I usually don't let my sentimentality cloud my predicitions but, in this race I'll say that I think Richard Jenkins should win the statuette but he won't.

Best Actress:
I've got to go with Kate Winslet for her inCREdible performance in The Reader. I suppose Meryl Streep is a dark horse favorite who could steal it from her, but since Winslet also gave a pretty great turn in Revolutionary Road I think she has this race sewn up.

Best Supporting Actor:
Duh. Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight. No doubt. No contest.

Best Supporting Actress:
This has been the hardest race to call for me. Like with Actor, I've changed my mind about 50 times. But unlike the Actor race, I can actually see any of the supporting actress nominees winning. Penelope Cruz has the most buzz; and maybe it’s because while I thought she was good in “Vicky Cristina” I didn’t think she was all that, but I don’t necessarily think Cruz is a definite. So I went with Cruz in my pool, but I think that both Viola Davis and Marisa Tomei have an outside chance, with the edge to Davis because Tomei already won this award (undeservedly IMO).

Best Foreign Film:
I'm going with Waltz With Bashir. But the other contender is the French film The Class. "Waltz" was the only one of the nominees that I saw.

Best Animated Film:
WALL-E. Almost as sure a bet as Supporting Actor.

Best Documentary:
I'm going with "Man On Wire", only because it's the one with the most buzz. "Trouble The Water" about Katrina could steal it though.

Best Original Screenplay:
Will probably go to Dustin Black for Milk. Mcdonagh has a small shot for his writing In Bruges.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
I can't imagine the Oscar going to anyone other than Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire. But boy did David Hare do a great job with The Reader.

Best Cinematography:
Another tough race. This is the tie-breaker category in my work Oscar pool. I went with Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire, but it could easily go to Wally Pfister for The Dark Knight.

Best Visual Effects:
The last two awards I'm giving up to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Best Make-up:
"Benji Button" -I mean seriously, how could you not?


Happy Oscars 2009!!! Here's another pic of my boyfriend to end things right.